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2022 Sudsitology - 2022 Final Seed List Accuracy


66/68 teams in bracket correct


42 teams have correct seed

23 teams have seed off by 1

1 team has seed off by 2

2 teams not in bracket*


Paymon Score** = 347

Average Paymon Score in Bracket Matrix = 347.0

Variance = 0.0

5-year weighted average = +2.39

Years completed = 3


Average Deviation*** = 0.426



*Misses:

  • I had Texas A&M as an 11 seed and Xavier as a 12 seed, but both missed the tournament

  • I had Michigan and Rutgers in my First Four Out, but both were 11 seeds

**Paymon Score

  • 3 points for each team correctly picked, 3 points for each team correctly seeded, and 1 point for each team not seeded correctly but within one seed line

  • (66*3 + 42*3 + 23*1) = 347

  • Weighted average gives 5 points for the most recent year, 4 points for the prior year, etc., divided by the total weight

  • [(0.0*5) + (-3.4*4) + (14.1*3)] / 12 = +2.39

***Average Deviation

  • (42*0 + 23*1 + 3*2) / 68 = 0.426

  • For calculation, I value my "first four out" as if I projected them as 13 seeds, and my "next four out" as if I projected them as 14 seeds. So I treated Michigan and Rutgers as 13 seeds in my projection for a deviation of 13-11 = 2.



Comparisons:


Paymon Score and Variance:

  • Suds: 347, 0.0

  • Lunardi: 343, -4.0

  • Palm: 326, -21.0

5-Year Weighted Average:

  • Lunardi: +4.08

  • Suds: +2.39

  • Palm: -7.19

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2024 Sudsitology - 2024 Final Seed List Accuracy

67/68 teams in bracket correct 42 teams have correct seed 17 teams have seed off by 1 7 teams have seed off by 2 1 team has seed off by 3 1 team not in bracket* Paymon Score** = 344 Average Paymon Sco

2023 Sudsitology - 2023 Final Seed List Accuracy

67/68 teams in bracket correct 45 teams have correct seed 20 teams have seed off by 1 2 teams have seed off by 2 1 team not in bracket* Paymon Score** = 356 Average Paymon Score in Bracket Matrix = 35

2021 Sudsitology - Final Seed List Accuracy

67/68 teams in bracket correct 40 teams have correct seed 22 teams have seed off by 1 2 teams have seed off by 2 3 teams have seed off by 3 1 team not in bracket* Paymon Score** = 343 Average Paymon S

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