66/68 teams in bracket correct
42 teams have correct seed
23 teams have seed off by 1
1 team has seed off by 2
2 teams not in bracket*
Paymon Score** = 347
Average Paymon Score in Bracket Matrix = 347.0
Variance = 0.0
5-year weighted average = +2.39
Years completed = 3
Average Deviation*** = 0.426
*Misses:
I had Texas A&M as an 11 seed and Xavier as a 12 seed, but both missed the tournament
I had Michigan and Rutgers in my First Four Out, but both were 11 seeds
**Paymon Score
3 points for each team correctly picked, 3 points for each team correctly seeded, and 1 point for each team not seeded correctly but within one seed line
(66*3 + 42*3 + 23*1) = 347
Weighted average gives 5 points for the most recent year, 4 points for the prior year, etc., divided by the total weight
[(0.0*5) + (-3.4*4) + (14.1*3)] / 12 = +2.39
***Average Deviation
(42*0 + 23*1 + 3*2) / 68 = 0.426
For calculation, I value my "first four out" as if I projected them as 13 seeds, and my "next four out" as if I projected them as 14 seeds. So I treated Michigan and Rutgers as 13 seeds in my projection for a deviation of 13-11 = 2.
Comparisons:
Paymon Score and Variance:
Suds: 347, 0.0
Lunardi: 343, -4.0
Palm: 326, -21.0
5-Year Weighted Average:
Lunardi: +4.08
Suds: +2.39
Palm: -7.19
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