2025 Sudsitology - 2025 Final Seed List Accuracy

66/68 teams in bracket correct

54 teams have correct seed

10 teams have seed off by 1

1 team has seed off by 2

1 team has seed off by 3

2 teams not in bracket*

Paymon Score** = 370

Average Paymon Score in Bracket Matrix = 354.9

Variance = +15.1

4-year weighted average = +6.86

Years completed = 6

Average Deviation*** = 0.250

*Misses:

• I had West Virginia as a 10 seed, but they were 1st team out

• I had Indiana as an 11 seed, but they were 2nd team out

• I had Texas as my 1st team out, but they were Last Four In

• I had North Carolina as my 3rd team out, but they were Last Four In

**Paymon Score:

• 3 points for each team correctly picked, 3 points for each team correctly seeded, and 1 point for each team not seeded correctly but within one seed line

• (66*3 + 54*3 + 10*1) = 370

• Weighted average gives 5 points for the most recent year, 4 points for the prior year, etc., divided by total weight

• 4-year: [(15.1*5) + (5.4*4) + (-0.5*3) + (0.0*2)] / 14 = +6.86

***Average Deviation

• (54*0 + 12*1 + 1*2 + 1*3) / 68 = 0.250

• For calculation, I valued Texas and North Carolina as being within one seed line, since they were in my First Four Out, and they're part of the Last Four In

Comparisons:

Paymon Score and Variance:

• Suds: 370, +15.1 (12th best out of 250)

• Matrix: 366, +11.1

• Lunardi: 358, +3.1

• Palm: 334, -20.9

5-Year Weighted Average:

• Suds: +6.86

• Lunardi: +0.84

• Palm: -13.23

Rank in Bracket Veterans:

• Suds: # 45

• Lunardi: # 125

• Palm: # 179

Sudsitology Results by Year:

	2019	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
Paymon Score	356	343	347	356	344	370
Variance	+14.1	-3.4	0.0	-0.5	+5.4	+15.1
Average Deviation	0.382	0.544	0.426	0.368	0.515	0.250