67/68 teams in bracket correct
40 teams have correct seed
22 teams have seed off by 1
2 teams have seed off by 2
3 teams have seed off by 3
1 team not in bracket*
Paymon Score** = 343
Average Paymon Score in Bracket Matrix = 346.4
Variance = -3.4
5-year weighted average = +4.38
Years completed = 2
Average Deviation*** = 0.544
*Misses:
I had Louisville as an 11 seed, but they were First Four Out
I had Utah State as my 2nd team out, but they were an 11 seed
**Paymon Score
3 points for each team correctly picked, 3 points for each team correctly seeded, and 1 point for each team not seeded correctly but within one seed line
(67*3 + 40*3 + 22*1) = 343
Weighted average gives 5 points for the most recent year, 4 points for the prior year, etc., divided by the total weight
[(-3.4*5) + (14.1*4)] / 9 = +4.38
***Average Deviation
(40*0 + 22*1 + 3*2 + 3*3) / 68 = 0.544
For calculation, I value my "first four out" as if I projected them as 13 seeds, and my "next four out" as if I projected them as 14 seeds. So I treated Utah State as a 13 seed in my projection for a deviation of 13-11 = 2.
Comparisons:
Paymon Score and Variance:
Lunardi: 354, +7.6
Suds: 343, -3.4
Palm: 343, -3.4