67/68 teams in bracket correct
45 teams have correct seed
20 teams have seed off by 1
2 teams have seed off by 2
1 team not in bracket*
Paymon Score** = 356
Average Paymon Score in Bracket Matrix = 341.9
Variance = +14.1
5-year weighted average = +14.1
Years completed = 1
Average Deviation*** = 0.382
*Misses:
I had TCU as a 12 seed, but they were First Four Out
I had Belmont as my 2nd team out, but they were an 11 seed
**Paymon Score
3 points for each team correctly picked, 3 points for each team correctly seeded, and 1 point for each team not seeded correctly but within one seed line
(67*3 + 45*3 + 20*1) = 356
Weighted average gives 5 points for the most recent year, 4 points for the prior year, etc., divided by the total weight
(14.1*5) / 5 = +14.1
***Average Deviation
(45*0 + 20*1 + 3*2) / 68 = 0.382
For calculation, I value my "first four out" as if I projected them as 13 seeds, and my "next four out" as if I projected them as 14 seeds. So I treated Belmont as a 13 seed in my projection for a deviation of 13-11 = 2.
Comparisons:
Paymon Score and Variance:
Lunardi: 357, +15.1
Suds: 356, +14.1
Palm: 344, +2.1
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